Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Which company has the #1 AI model by end of July 2026? Style Control On. The market resolves to the company occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard by July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, as shown in the Leaderboard tab under Text Arena | Overall. Check time determines ranking, with ties broken by Arena score and then alphabetically by company name.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
26
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Anthropic | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| OpenAI | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alibaba | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Z.ai | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| xAI | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| DeepSeek | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Moonshot | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mistral | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Meituan | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Microsoft | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Meta | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Amazon | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Baidu | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ByteDance | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company A | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company B | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company C | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company D | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company E | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company F | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company G | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company H | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company I | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.