Google to hold the top rank in the Math arena as of the June 30, 2026 check, posting the highest arena rank and meeting tie‑break rules. Settlement follows if Google is first at check time; otherwise, based on leaderboard when available and first lists Google.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Yes | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| OpenAI | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alibaba | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| xAI | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ByteDance | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Baidu | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Moonshot | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Amazon | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Z.ai | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mistral | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| DeepSeek | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Meituan | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Meta | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Microsoft | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company A | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company B | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company C | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company D | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company E | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company F | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company G | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company H | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company I | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company J | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company K | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company L | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company M | No | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.