OpenAI to be the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard Text Arena by December 31, 2026. Settlement follows the first 1550+ Text Arena score attributed to OpenAI on lmarena.ai; if no score is reached by the deadline, the market resolves to None in 2026; if another company first crosses, it resolves to Other.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| xAI | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Anthropic | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| DeepSeek | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| None in 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alibaba | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Z.ai | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mistral | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company D | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company E | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company F | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company G | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company H | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company I | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company J | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company L | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company M | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company N | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company O | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company P | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company Q | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company R | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company S | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company T | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company U | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company V | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company W | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company X | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Company Y | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.