Description
Any EU country to conduct a qualifying drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or an official Iranian embassy/consulate by April 30, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Mar 23, 2026, 22:27
Resolve date
May 1, 2026, 06:41
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Resolved
Parent event
Event
Volume
Markets
13
Top market
Market Outcomes
Event Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.