Sam Bankman-Fried to receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). Settlement follows official government announcements, with credible reporting as a fallback.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bankman-Fried | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Eric Adams | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Steve Bannon | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Roger Ver | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Julian Assange | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Himself | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Diddy | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Elon Musk | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hunter Biden | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Young Thug | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Edward Snowden | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Matt Gaetz | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Daniel Penny | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Roger Stone | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bob Menendez | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Joe Exotic | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Derek Chauvin | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Antoine Massey | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Elizabeth Holmes | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Do Kwon | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Stefan Brodie | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Donald Brodie | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ryan Salame | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Keonne Rodriguez | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Martin Shkreli | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nicolas Maduro | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Andrew Tate | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.