Description
December 31, 2025: Yes if any NATO member formally withdraws or submits a denunciation notice to NATO by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025. Exits from the integrated command alone do not count.
Price history
Loading price history...
Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Feb 13, 2025, 23:07
Resolve date
Jan 1, 2026, 08:14
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Resolved
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2025 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.