Yes: Israel launches a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza on March 4, 2026 (IST). Strikes include any Gaza ground territory; interceptions do not qualify. Resolution sources include official statements or credible reporting; if unconfirmed by the end of the third calendar date after March 4, the market resolves to No.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 1 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 2 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 3 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 4 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 5 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 6 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 7 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 8 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 9 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 18 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 19 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 20 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 21 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 22 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 23 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 25 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 26 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 27 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 29 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 30 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.