Yes: Bardella leaves the National Rally (by December 31, through any disaffiliation, new party affiliation, or independence) by 11:59 PM ET, as evidenced by an official Bardella or National Rally statement. Informal rumors do not qualify.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.