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Description
Marine Le Pen’s appeal against a five‑year ineligibility ban, issued March 31, 2025, targets whether she may again be eligible to run for public office in 2027. Hearings run January 13–February 12, with a first merits judgment by the Paris Court of Appeal by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. A Yes resolves if the court issues an initial decision lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing the ban; No otherwise.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.