Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? The May 28, 2025 ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade found that Trump exceeded his authority under IEEPA in imposing broad tariffs, blocking measures including Liberation Day and various country tariffs. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal, V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States. The market resolves Yes if by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the appeal is denied in whole or in part and importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs tied to that ruling, otherwise No. Refunds must be actual payments, credits, or offsets issued by CBP or the Treasury.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will Trump visit China by...?U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?How many SCOTUS justices rule in favor of Trump's tariffs?Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?Will Trump cut off trade with Spain?Where will Trump and Putin meet next?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur: 1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part 2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe. For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs. If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.