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Description
Congress may approve tariffs only if both the House and Senate pass the same bill explicitly creating an import tax on at least one country or category of goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Passage requires identical bill language across chambers; amendments count only if later enacted in identical form. Resolution relies on official voting records and credible reporting.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify. A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form. The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.