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Description
Nigel Farage may contest the Clacton by-election after his resignation. The market resolves to Yes if Farage’s share of valid votes in the next Clacton by-election exceeds his share in the 2024 Clacton election; calculation uses Farage’s valid votes divided by total valid votes. If he does not contest, if no by-election occurs by June 30, 2027, or if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to No. Settlement relies on credible reporting or, failing that, official Tendring District Council and UK Parliament results.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).