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Description
Russia capture of the Kozacha Lopan railroad station in Kharkiv Oblast is evaluated against the ISW map. The market resolves to Yes if, by the specified date, any shading indicating Russian control remains on the designated station icon on the ISW Ukraine map through the next full ISW update cycle, or via a negotiated settlement that grants de facto control. If the shading does not persist, or ISW updates are unavailable and DeepStateMap is used, the market resolves to No. Resolutions hinge on explicit map updates and credible reporting when needed.
Event stats
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Markets
2
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (50.335310° N, 36.195107° E) located in Kozacha Lopan, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+1.png Location in Kozacha Lopan: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+2.png Kozacha Lopan Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kozacha+Lopan+3.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/A6sTS2Tt34c8LWv66 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.