Description
Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? The market resolves to Yes if the United States officially announces that any territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise it resolves to No. Sovereignty requires formal governance or jurisdiction transfer, not mere leases or access, and announcements from the US in collaboration with the UK or Mauritius qualify, as do credible reporting consensus confirmations of sovereignty on the ground.
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Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer. An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, United Kingdom, or Mauritius, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that land on the Chagos Archipelago has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.