Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Russia nuclear test by...? Markets track whether Russia conducts a nuclear detonation by specific dates. A test is any intentional non-combat device detonation that yields a nuclear chain reaction, per credible reporting. Accidents, dirty bombs, or third-party actions do not count; unclaimed tests may count if credible reporting attributes them to Russia. Resolution comes from a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
6
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Where will Trump and Putin meet next?Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?U.S. nuclear test by...?Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Nuclear weapon detonation by...?Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.