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Description
U.S. nuclear test by…? markets assess whether the United States conducts a nuclear test by a given date. A test is any intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction, attributed to the U.S. by credible reporting. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices, or third-party actions do not count. Tests not claimed may still qualify if credible reporting attributes the detonation to the U.S.; resolution rests on a broad consensus of credible reporting by the stated deadline window.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
6
Market highlights
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24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.