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Description
Russia and Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026 is a binary outcome market. A “Yes” resolves if an official, general halt in military engagement between the two states is publicly announced and mutually agreed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If such an agreement is reached earlier, the market resolves to Yes regardless of when the ceasefire starts. Exclusions include energy-specific, Black Sea, or other narrowly scoped accords, informal understandings, and humanitarian pauses. Resolution follows an official announcement by Russia and Ukraine or, failing that, a broad credible-media consensus confirming an official ceasefire.
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.