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Description
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? concerns a mutually agreed, officially announced halt in military engagement between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A Yes resolves if an official ceasefire is announced by that date, with early agreement also sufficing. Informal accords and humanitarian pauses do not count; settlement relies on official announcements from both sides or a broad credible-media consensus confirming an official ceasefire agreement.
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.