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Description
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? concerns whether an official, mutually agreed halt in military engagement between Russia and Ukraine is announced by 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. If an agreement is reached before that deadline, the market resolves to Yes, even if the ceasefire starts later. Only general pauses count; energy-specific or humanitarian pauses do not. Informal accords do not qualify, while a public, dated halt within a peace framework does. Resolution relies on official announcements or a credible consensus of reporting confirming an official ceasefire between the two nations.
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Related events
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?Ukraine election called by...?Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Ukraine election held by...?NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.