Price history
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Description
Ukraine re-enter Maliivka in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by March 31, 2026, if the ISW map shows Ukraine capturing any portion of Maliivka (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the deadline, with persistence across the next full ISW daily update cycle. If shading appears due to a negotiated settlement granting actual control, that also qualifies for Yes. Resolution depends on ISW (or DeepStateMap if needed) and credible reporting if both sources are unavailable.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
5
Market highlights
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24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Maliivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (47.920810° N, 36.618600° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.