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Description
Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31, 2026 hinges on ISW map shading. A territory is captured if any part of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, is shaded as Ukrainian-controlled on the ISW map by the resolution date, with persistence through the next full daily update cycle. If Ukraine gains control via a negotiated settlement, that qualifies for Yes, but not de jure settlements; actual control matters. The primary resolution source is the ISW map, with DeepStateMap as fallback if needed, and credible reporting if both are unavailable.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
2
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Top market
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, (48.299654° N, 37.265129° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.