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Description
Ukraine–EU accession treaty prospects hinge on a formal signing by December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM ET). A qualifying treaty is a binding agreement detailing Ukraine’s potential future EU membership, including partial or limited membership or exemptions and transition provisions. Signing alone triggers Yes; ratification is not required. Preliminary accords or non-signatory frameworks do not qualify; resolution rests on official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, or credible reporting consensus.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine and the European Union formally sign an accession treaty by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying accession treaty will be a binding agreement that establishes the terms of Ukraine's potential future membership in the European Union, including agreements that provide for partial or limited membership or that contain exemptions, transition periods, or carve-outs on specific EU policies. Ukraine does not need to become a member of the European Union for this market to resolve to "Yes". Ratification of the agreement by EU member states, the Ukrainian parliament, or other legislative bodies is not required for this market to resolve "Yes." Preliminary agreements, association agreements, framework agreements, or membership or potential membership in the European Economic Area alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the European Commission, European Council, or Government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.