Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by June 30, 2026: Yes if IMF PortWatch reports a daily transit calls total of 0 for any date in the window from June 26 through the specified date. The report must cover Arrivals of Ships in the Strait of Hormuz across container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo, and tanker categories. If a 0 is not published for any date, or data is incomplete after 28 days, the market resolves to No. Corrections are allowed for data integrity issues and revisions to earlier points can affect settlement.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
4
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Who will enter Iran by June 30?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.