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Description
Closest Governor's Race? The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. This market resolves to the gubernatorial race with the smallest margin of victory across all listed states (Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, Florida, Georgia, Vermont, Nevada). Margin is the absolute difference in valid votes between the top two finishers, using their share of total valid votes. If margins tie, the tied state whose governor’s last name comes first alphabetically determines the outcome. The race will settle based on certified results from state election authorities, with credible reporting as a fallback.
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Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.