Description
Iowa to have the closest U.S. Senate race in 2026. Margin defined as the smallest gap between the first- and second-place valid vote shares in Iowa, per the event rules and resolution sources.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
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24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Jun 26, 2026, 20:22
Resolve date
Nov 3, 2026, 23:59
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Montana | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Colorado | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| New Mexico | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Texas | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nebraska | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Iowa | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Minnesota | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Michigan | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ohio (Special) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Georgia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Florida (Special) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Virginia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| North Carolina | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| New Hampshire | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Maine | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.