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Description
Closest Senate Race? The 2026 midterm elections are set for November 3, 2026. This market resolves to the state with the smallest margin of victory among all November Senate races, including special elections, as certified by state authorities by October 31, 2026 or, if needed, credible reporting consensus. If margins are identical, the tied state with the alphabetically earliest last name governs. The margin uses the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ valid vote shares, computed from valid votes for those two candidates divided by total valid votes cast.
Event stats
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Markets
16
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Montana | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Colorado | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| New Mexico | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Texas | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nebraska | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Iowa | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Minnesota | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Michigan | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ohio (Special) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Georgia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Florida (Special) | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Virginia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| North Carolina | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| New Hampshire | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Maine | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.