Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
ECB rate cut in 2026? The market resolves to Yes if the ECB lowers the upper bound of its deposit facility rate at any point during 2026, from January 1 through the end of its December 2026 meeting (December 16–17, 2026). If no such cut occurs, the market resolves to No, with the No resolution possible only after the December meeting decision or when cancellation/postponement creates a no-change scenario by year-end; a consensus of credible reporting may also determine the outcome when official data are delayed. The ECB's rate decisions come from the ECB itself or corroborated credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
1
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
ECB Interest Rates: March 2026ECB Interest Rates: April 2026ECB rate hike in 2026?Bank of Japan Decision in March?Bank of England Decision in March?Bank of Brazil Decision in March?Reserve Bank of Australia decision in March?Bank of Japan Decision in April?Bank of Canada decision in March?Bank of Mexico Decision in March?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.