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Description
ECB rate hike in 2026? is a market on whether the ECB will raise the upper bound of its deposit facility rate at any point from January 1, 2026 through the ECB's December 2026 meeting (December 16–17, 2026). Resolution occurs if a rate increase is announced during that window; No settles if no increase occurs or the December decision is not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and no qualifying hike has taken place. The primary resolution source is the ECB, with credible reporting accepted if needed.
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Related events
ECB Interest Rates: March 2026ECB Interest Rates: April 2026ECB rate cut in 2026?Bank of Japan Decision in March?Bank of England Decision in March?Bank of Brazil Decision in March?Reserve Bank of Australia decision in March?Bank of Japan Decision in April?Bank of Canada decision in March?Bank of Mexico Decision in March?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | Yes | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.