Description
<1.05ºC: February 2026 index falls below 1.05°C in the NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (Feb value). Immediate settlement if an anomaly places it in this bracket when data is released.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Feb 2, 2026, 22:01
Resolve date
Mar 11, 2026, 18:38
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Resolved
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <1.05ºC | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.05–1.09ºC | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.10–1.14ºC | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.15–1.19ºC | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.20–1.24ºC | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| >1.24ºC | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.