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Description
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory is a set of markets on the 2026 mayoral contest. The final margin between the top two candidates will be determined from the official vote count, with runoff if no outright winner and July 30, 2026 as the vote date. Settlement uses the absolute percentage gap between the leading two valid votes, with bracket rules applying if the value lies on a boundary and alphabetical tie-breaking if needed. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other, otherwise a credible-reporting consensus or the official Greater Manchester Combined Authority data will settle.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
7
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bev Craig 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bev Craig 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bev Craig 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bev Craig <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sian Astley <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sian Astley 5%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).