Description
Sian Astley 5%+ margin to determine the gap in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Settlement uses final official count; boundary ties resolved in favor of the higher bracket; alphabetical tie-break for listed candidates.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
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24h volume
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Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Jul 4, 2026, 00:58
Resolve date
Jul 30, 2026, 23:59
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bev Craig 15%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bev Craig 10–15% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bev Craig 5–10% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bev Craig <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sian Astley <5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sian Astley 5%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final round of the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. The final round will be the first round if a candidate wins outright, or the runoff if no candidate wins outright. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).