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Description
Democratic House retirements in the 2026 cycle: count of members not seeking reelection to their current seats. The total is defined by those who publicly retire, switch to a different office, or decline to seek their party’s nomination, for members whose terms end with the 2026 House elections (filed by late August 2026). Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting after all filing deadlines. The market spans the eight numeric ranges <20, 20–23, 24–27, 28–31, 32–35, 36–39, 40+ and resolves to the true total falling in one bucket.
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Rules
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.