Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Another US government shutdown & House winner 2026 combines two outcomes: whether the federal government experiences a shutdown by January 31, 2026 (OPM status), and which party wins the House in the 2026 elections (based on majority after November 3, 2026 voting). A shutdown resolves if OPM’s status page reports a lapse in appropriations causing a federal shutdown by 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026; partial shutdowns count, while closures due to holidays or weather do not. The House outcome resolves by the party holding a majority after the 2026 elections; if ambiguity remains post-election, the market stays open until a Speaker is elected and the speaker’s party is identified, with “Other” if no caucus aligns. Settlement rests on a consensus of credible reporting or final official certification where needed.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
5
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?Which party will win the House in 2026?Republican 2026 Senate odds hit___ by March 31?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican 2026 House odds hit___ by March 31?Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?2026 Midterms: House Turnout
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shutdown & Democratic Party | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Shutdown & Republican Party | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| No Shutdown & Democratic Party | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| No Shutdown & Republican Party | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.