Description
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? to Yes if any on-site visit occurs by October 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). On-site presence required; virtual inspections excluded.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
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24h volume
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Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Jul 9, 2026, 00:35
Resolve date
Oct 31, 2026, 23:59
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.