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Description
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? markets track whether IAEA officials physically visit one or more listed sites in Iran between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on July 31. A visit must occur on site within Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility and be reported by the IAEA or credible reporting consensus to settle Yes; otherwise, the market resolves to No. Pickaxe Mountain is not part of Natanz, and virtual inspections do not count.
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4
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.