Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Israel’s 2026 drone, missile, and airstrike activity will be tallied by the number of distinct countries whose soil is struck by Israeli forces between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Strikes on embassies count to the country hosting the embassy; strikes inside Israel’s 2025-12-31 territory, the West Bank, or Gaza do not count. A strike is defined as a directed aerial attack that reaches another sovereign ground territory, as confirmed by official Israeli statements or credible reporting. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
16
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by...?Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Iran military action against ___ by March 31?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.