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Description
The question asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution depends on a credible consensus reporting that such an offensive has begun, with both Iran and US land areas as of November 4, 2025 defined as sovereign. If no offensive begins by the deadline, the Yes condition is not met and the answer is No.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.