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Description
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? The market resolves to Yes if by March 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET) the Islamic Republic’s core governing structures are dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system, resulting in the regime no longer exercising sovereign power. A broad consensus of credible reporting is required; routine elections or leadership changes do not qualify. Partial territorial losses do not qualify unless the regime loses governance over the majority of Iran’s population. Settlement follows credible reporting confirming a clear break in continuity, such as a provisional government or new constitution.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.