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Description
Iran–Israel/US conflict ends by a specified date if there exists a continuous 14-day window with no qualifying military action by Iran or by Israel/US forces. The window may start at any time up to the end date and must extend through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th day after a strike is confirmed, with actions defined as direct use of force on soil, embassies, or consulates and publicly acknowledged by the actor or corroborated by credible reporting. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count as military actions and proxy attacks do not count unless claimed by Iran. The market resolves to Yes if such a 14-day peaceful interval ever occurs within the timeframe; otherwise, No.
Event stats
24h volume
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Markets
9
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Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.