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Description
The U.S. invasion question asks whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution follows a consensus of credible sources; land claimed by either Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 is treated as that nation’s sovereign territory for purposes of this market.
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.