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Description
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes if the US government or credible reporting confirms possession of any quantity of Iranian enriched uranium by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026; otherwise, No. Possession includes physical custody anywhere, or through a qualifying seizure or surrender, and excludes mere future deals or plans. Settlement may be based on a government announcement or a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
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Markets
7
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.