Price history
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Description
Iran charges Hormuz fees by... candidates promise a government move to impose tolls, charges, or tariffs on commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The market resolves Yes if the government officially announces and begins collecting a generally applicable fee or a defined subcategory, with credible reporting confirming collection begins, before 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. If no such official announcement and collection start occur, the market resolves No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
5
Market highlights
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Related events
Who will enter Iran by June 30?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.