Yes: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran’s de facto leader at any point by March 13, 2025 ET (market creation date through March 13). Removal, detention, loss of power, or an official resignation announcement qualifies under credible reporting.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 13 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.