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Description
Iran leadership change by...? markets assess whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be Iran’s de facto leader between market creation and the listed date. Yes requires removal, detention, or loss of power within the window; an official resignation/removal announcement also qualifies. Resolution rests on a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
Market highlights
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Top market
24h gainer
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Highest volume
Related events
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Iran strike on US military by March 31?Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?Iran strikes Israel on...?US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 13 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2027 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.