Price history
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Description
Iran’s shipping-targeting markets focus on a specified date in late June to early July. A Yes resolves if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the stated date in IRST (UTC+3:30); attacks by proxies or on military vessels do not qualify. If the exact timing or attribution is uncertain by 11:59 PM IRST, the market may stay open for up to three additional days; if still unresolved, it settles to No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
22
Market highlights
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24h gainer
24h loser
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Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 26 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 27 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 29 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 1 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 2 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 3 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 4 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 5 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 6 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 7 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 8 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 9 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 10 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 11 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 12 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 13 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 14 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.