Description
December 31: Yes if the ceasefire is cancelled by either side or credible reporting confirms it is no longer in effect by December 31, 2025 (11:59 PM ET).
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Oct 10, 2025, 21:27
Resolve date
Jan 1, 2026, 09:16
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Resolved
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| November 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| November 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.