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Description
Israel x Hamas ceasefire status hinges on a formal end to the October 9, 2025 ceasefire. Yes resolves if either side announces cancellation or if credible reporting confirms the ceasefire is no longer in effect by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, with official Hamas or Israeli government announcements as primary sources and credible reporting as a fallback.
Event stats
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Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
8
Market highlights
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| November 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| November 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.