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Description
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by May 13, 2025? Israel initiates a major ground offensive if 1,000+ ground troops enter Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start, between May 5, 9:00 PM ET and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET; resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting.
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24h volume
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Liquidity
Markets
5
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.