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5
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Related events
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.