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Description
Texas Democratic and Republican Senate primaries are set for March 3, 2026, with a possible runoff on May 26 if no candidate wins a majority. This market resolves to Dems if the Democratic margin of victory (top two vote shares in the first-round Democratic primary) exceeds the GOP margin; resolves to GOP if the Republican margin is larger; and settles 50-50 if margins are equal or results are not definitively known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution uses official statewide results from the Texas Secretary of State or a credible reporting consensus if necessary.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larger margin of victory in Dem or GOP Texas Senate Primary? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Democratic and Republican Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve to “Dems” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary. This market will resolve to “GOP” if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary is greater than the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the margin of victory between the top two candidates in both primaries is exactly equal, or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.