Price history
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Description
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer (Aug 1–Oct 1, 2026) will be measured as the daily NH-Daily-Extent minimum published by the NSIDC. The market resolves to the low point observed across all days in that window, with precision to thousands of square kilometers. Data must be published for Oct 1, 2026; revisions after that date do not affect settlement. Settlement follows the NSIDC minimum value recorded in the Sea Ice Index Daily Extent data set.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
7
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.0-4.2m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.2-4.4m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.4-4.6m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.6-4.8m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.8-5m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 5m+ sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.